And that’s the fact that all of the statistics and probabilities outlined above are based on a pretty significant assumption, which is that the climate models we have right now are, by and large, correct. It’s quite scary, but there is an even more disturbing detail included in the analysis. If the world continues to warm to an average of 3.6 degrees (2 degrees Celsius) of global warming above pre-industrial temperatures (which could happen as early as the 2040s), then an event like this would occur.Additionally, this heat wave was about 3.6 degrees (2 degrees Celsius) warmer than it would have been if it had occurred at the start of the Industrial Revolution.If human-induced climate change had not raised temperatures as much as it already did, then the event would have been 150 times the figure of 1 in 1,000.In the most realistic statistical analysis, the event is estimated to be approximately one event in 1,000 years based on our best understanding of the current climate.Based on observations and modeling, a heat wave with such extreme temperatures would have been virtually impossible without man-made climate change.Here are some of the main takeaways from the study: His last effort, centered on the last heat wave, allows a sober reading. extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, heat waves and droughts they are currently experiencing. These studies, which are published before being peer-reviewed for topical reasons, provide the public, scientists, journalists and policy makers with a better understanding of how greenhouse gas emissions may be linked to environmental issues. Since 2015, she has been performing real-time attribution analysis of extreme weather events as they occur. World Weather Attribution is a scientist-led effort working on this problem. However, as the frequency of such events increases and the evidence continues to accumulate that the climate crisis is largely to blame, a growing number of experts are looking for ways to communicate these links responsibly. In recent years, scientists have been careful to attribute an extreme weather event to human-induced climate change.
What has made the recent extreme heat so terrifying is that records have been broken up to 8.3 degrees (4.6 degrees Celsius). When heat records fall normally, they drop in fractions of degrees, with each new high only slightly higher than the high that preceded it.
The recent heat waves in Canada and the Pacific Northwest have panicked many seasoned climate watchers, including normally cautious climatologists.